Kriminalprognose und Sexualdelinquenz - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen standardisierter Kriminalprognosemethoden bei Sexualstraftätern

Abstract

The present research project addresses standardized recidivism risk prediction methods for released sexual offenders. Originally developed in the Anglo-American language area, standardized risk instruments are meanwhile in the German-speaking part of Europe regarded as state of the art as well. Using a prospective longitudinal research design we examined the inter-rater reliability and the concurrent and predictive validity of the German versions or adaptations of the most commonly used standardized risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99, the Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). On the one hand, the results of the present studies indicate satisfactory reliability and validity and therefore support the predictive value of these risk tools. On the other hand, particularly the predictive validity varied depending on instrument, offender subgroup and recidivism category. Consequently, practitioners have to take these limitations into consideration when they use standardized recidivism risk prediction tools for sexual offenders.